Update 5/1/09, 11:45 PM, title revised, controversy:"CDC's chief virologist, Ruben Donis essentially confirmed the reading of the current swine flu strain made by New Scientist: that it evolved from a strain that cropped up in U.S. hog farms in 1998." The same article notes two children got sick late March in California before the cases that began in Mexico early April. Ruben Donis talks about its genetic roots from 1998, here. "Both New Scientist and Donis emphasize that what we’re talking about is a swine flu—in direct contradiction of the pork industry’s party line....""We all pray this remains sensitive to antivirals. We all hope that vaccines will be developed. The virus doesn’t grow very well in eggs. We hope the virus will improve [the] ability to grow in eggs so we can produce [a] vaccine...." More on the California origins here. There was no contact with swine, no travel to Mexico in a 10 year old boy ill with fever March 30 in San Diego County, and a 9 year old girl treated March 28 for cough and 104 degree fever. Now in the US there are 6 confirmed hospitalizations. This CBS news video interview with Dr. Richard Besser, Acting Director of CDC, describes why doctors should not prescribe Tamiflu for everyone in the US. Doctors can contact their local department of health and sign up for ... email notification [for updates on management and best practice].An interview with Brian Currie, MD, MPH, medical director of research at Montefiore Medical Center in New York City. He's an expert in pandemic preparedness. I'm assuming people should not try to stock up on anti-virals like Tamiflu or Relenza--is that right?
It's too late, anyway, at least in the New York area. People have already bought up all of the Tamiflu and Relenza that were available in non-hospital settings. It's too bad, because it makes it hard to discharge patients if they can't fill a prescription for an antiviral.
That's why we want to manage our supplies; you really want to be able to give severely ill people these drugs. They make a big difference. People have to take these drugs in the right way at the right time to help themselves, isn't that correct? Yes. And there are side effects that go with Tamiflu—the most common one is gastrointestinal upset. What makes it a little more complicated is that we still have regular flu strains circulating. Those are resistant to Tamiflu, while the swine flu is susceptible to the drug. So when we treat, we have to give two drugs, one to cover swine flu, and something else in case it's human flu. Relenza would cover both, but that's very difficult to administer. It's a powder you have to inhale, not a pill. Some patients with asthma or respiratory disease are going to get bronchial spasm. Or people end up medicating their mouths instead of their lungs. Timing is a consideration, too. Isn't there a window of opportunity? They need to be given within 48 hours of onset. Do these drugs also help prevent illness—if, say, you're a family member of a patient? Yes. Tamiflu is about 70 percent effective. If you give it to ten people who have been exposed, it will prevent illness in seven of them. What signs and symptoms should send someone to the doctor, especially given that you want to get there within that 48-hour window? You'll have an abrupt onset of fever of 102 degrees or higher, you'll have cough, body aches, you may have some shortness of breath, and you can be flat on your back in bed within hours—that's how debilitating it is.... If you have diarrhea or vomiting or nausea, you probably have some other virus.
###
California Department of Public Health Swine Flu website
###
This is the CDC recommendation on use of face masks and respirators where H1N1 flu has been detected.
###
Try here to purchase the N95 face masks or here
###
Update 4/30/09, 11:00 PM, title again revised: Again, the Wall Street Journal Health Blog has the most detailed reporting of events hour by hour.
Nearly 300 schools have closed from every region around the country, triple from yesterday.
This morning brought a name change for the virus, announced by the World Health Organization. It will be called H1N1 Influenza A, to take the emphasis off of swine as it was causing needless slaughter of pigs. Egypt culled their entire population of healthy pigs.
Tracking the tangled origins of the virus raises several new issues, discussed in the New York Times here. "..there is not yet any genetic proof that this particular flu was ever in a pig."
Most geneticists believe the H1N1 influenza A virus has pieces of human, bird, North American swine and Eurasian swine flu.
"The next question, said Dr. Robert G. Webster, a virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, is: How did this virus get in?"
"Now, scientists say, the hunt is on for what is jokingly being called Pig Zero." No one has swabbed a pig's snout. Ever.
"It presumably is in pigs somewhere, perhaps in Mexico.
The 1918 human H1N1 established itself in pigs by 1930. But, as Dr. Niman pointed out, it could be only in humans now - or even in a ferret."
Is there a hidden illegal trade? Is Mexico importing swine from Europe or Asia? Legal movement of lives pigs or even their semen is rare, expensive and requires quarantines. Frozen semen can transmit other diseases, but not the flu. It might be done for breeding, but not meat.
Symptoms in White House aide who travelled to Mexico with President Obama. He arrived April 13, became ill April 16, the next day he developed fever. On April 18, he returned home. As reported here, "The man visited his brother on April 19 and his nephew became ill. In the next two days, the aide's wife and son also became ill...." All have recovered and are being tested to verify if it is the same strain of H5N1 influenza. No one else in the US delegation to Mexico City got sick. More details of this minor case here: his first symptom was a minor cough.
"When he got home, he chalked up the cough to Mexico's pollution and thought nothing of it the night after his return when he brought a present from Mexico to his brother's house and stayed for dinner.
Griswold's wife, Alison, a registered nurse, was the first to notice something wrong in the family. When she checked on her 7-year-old son at school April 21, something about him seemed off. He said he felt fine and he looked all right, Alison Griswold said. But the school nurse said he had a low fever, so Alison took him home and kept him there for two days until he recovered.
Then she started getting sick: a cough, a high fever and chills. Last Friday, Griswold and his wife went to a doctor, who wasn't overly concerned. On Sunday, they saw another doctor, who gave them a flu test that came back negative. On Tuesday, on advice from health officials, the couple and their youngest child got the more thorough nasal swab test
The results came in Wednesday morning: positive for Type A influenza, probably the swine flu.
The results came in Wednesday morning: positive for Type A influenza, probably the swine flu.
After the initial shock came dread. Like everyone else, they had been watching the news and had seen reports of panic and fear in Mexico and in the United States.
As reports of their test results reached the White House, officials began piecing together Griswold's brief connection to Obama. Aides began calling people who had traveled with the president and informed the president yesterday morning.
The White House press office began preparing to make a dramatic reversal. For days, Gibbs had insisted there had been no real danger of infection during Obama's Mexico visit. On Monday, Gibbs shot down repeated questions about health concerns, saying Obama "has not exhibited any symptoms; neither has anybody traveling with him."
Meanwhile, at home, Griswold and his wife tried to help their children get back into school. It was only at the advice of health officials that they kept their two unaffected children at school and sent the sick one back Wednesday, they said.
....Meanwhile, at home, Griswold and his wife tried to help their children get back into school. It was only at the advice of health officials that they kept their two unaffected children at school and sent the sick one back Wednesday, they said."
"Over the past two days, his daughter, who was not infected, has endured stares and mean jokes as rumors spread through her school about her family's role in some of the first swine flu cases in the region, Griswold said. Griswold probably infected his nephew, and now the parents, close friends, refuse to talk to him."
Update 4/30/09, 9:30 AM: San Diego's confirmed cases of Swine Flu are not clustered. They occur throughout the large county and none have been to Mexico, according to the NPR interview with Dr. Wooten, Infectious Disease Specialist at UCSD. CDC's acting director Richard Besser reports the US now has 109 confirmed cases; the median age is 16. Confirmed cases now exist in 11 states - South Carolina has just confirmed one. If a virus goes away, we will not know if it will return or if a return will be a more severe form. If your doctor suspects possible Swine flu, they will swab your nose, and send it to a local lab. If they are not able to determine the strain of virus, it will then be sent on to state or national labs for confirmation.Update 4/29/09 at 11:45 PM, and Title revised: “The biggest question right now is this: How severe will the pandemic be? … It is possible that the full clinical spectrum of this disease goes from mild illness to severe disease.” That’s today's statement from the head of the WHO. It is still too early to tell. It may die off and stop. The longer this virus survives, the higher its chance of mutating into a more severe form. A pandemic doesn't necessarily have a high fatality rate, but the worldwide pandemic of 1918 that killed 50 million victims began relatively mild in the spring; a few months later it was deadly.
Yesterday, the CDC published the news that about
36,000 people in the US die in a typical year from flu-related causes. Today, I got the impression that some of my patients feel there is nothing to worry about as the swine flu has not killed anyone in the US. But this is just the start, and 2/3 of the deaths in Mexico occur in those under age 18. Yesterday we learned it began in late February or early March, but it could have been earlier as it went unrecognized until very recently.
Viruses rapidly mutate, and some become stronger as they evolve. There is no resistance to this virus because it is an entirely new virus in humans, which may make it more dangerous. No one can take for granted the reason there have been more deaths in Mexico is because mortality is higher in developing countries. We may not know how many cases there have been here or elsewhere until testing is confirmed, and so far the only testing lab in the US is at the CDC. There is a long delay for confirmation. But it is spreading rapidly. The first case in Europe appeared in Spain, in someone who had not been to Mexico. A pandemic is imminent because it is spreading globally.
Today, the WHO raised the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5, its second highest level: "This means there is sustained human-to-human spread in at least two countries." As of this evening, in the US there are 91 confirmed cases in 10 states with one death. "Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of infection including 7 deaths out of a total of 159 suspected deaths, nearly 2500 illnesses. The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (13), Germany (3), Israel (2), New Zealand (3), Spain (4) and the United Kingdom (5)."
There is no risk of infection from Swine Flu by eating well cooked pork.
Let me point out my initial comments, below, that ordinary masks are of no value except perhaps for the person who is sneezing or coughing to prevent them spreading infection. N95 masks are the ones needed for virus protection, and they are in short supply. They are expensive and probably need to be changed daily. One sneeze travels 90 mph and lands on many surfaces. The best protection is handwashing 20 seconds - as long as it takes to sing the Happy Birthday song, or at the least use a good alcohol based hand washing gel.
The
Wall Street Journal Health Blog continues to be the best detailed site for daily updated news, as noted below. A
local Carlsbad firm helped identify the virus. Ibis Bioscience's "rapid diagnostic system could have “revolutionary” consequences if it eventually wins government approval for commercial sale."
Posted 4/26/09 at 1:45 AM:
I received calls and emails a number of times today about Swine Flu, so I thought it best to post some information here now, even though I have only a moment to do a brief sketch. I will be updating this here as we go forward.
Google Earth is mapping the Swine flu
here and quite a few new cases have popped up overnight, especially in Europe. Most require confirmation.
The Swine flu is a Type A influenza virus, H1N1, that originates in pigs, but is now passing person to person and no longer requires contact with swine. It started in March and appears to afflict those between the ages of 3 months to 60 years with more severe symptoms. Deaths in younger persons appear to be due to the body's strong immune system mounting a cytokine response, not due to the virus itself. Since it may be mild, it is difficult to tell the incidence; until then, the mortality rate cannot be determined. It is not clear why Mexican cases appear to have been more severe with higher mortality.
Treatment: It responds to Tamiflu and Relenza (prescription) for short term relief only, but is resistant to Symmetrel and Flumadine. Last year's flu vaccination is not likely to offer protection. It will take months for vaccine producers to develop a vaccine specific for the Swine flu.
Officials are assuming this is an airborne disease. N95 masks are on back order, but production has been increased. These are masks used in medical practice that offer more protection against viruses than those at the hardware store.
I particularly like the Q&A format in the Wall Street Journal blog
here. And their Health Blog for
updates is the best I've seen.
The CDC also has
guidance for all of us, including physicians, with travel advice and what you can do to prevent the flu. The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control is
here.
Cases in the US and Mexico are the same virus, but it has been more severe in Mexico with at least 149 deaths, 20 of which are confirmed cases. There are no deaths yet in the U.S., but that pattern is likely to evolve. It is already on several continents, therefore containment is no longer possible. Spain and Scotland are the first places to confirm outside of North America.
Confirmation is slow because the CDC is one of the rare laboratories that is able to test for this virus although they will be sending out test kits soon. Four experts discuss it
here.
From the April 24, 2009, Wall Street Journal reference, above, emphasis mine:
Symptoms are similar to those of regular flu: fever, along with problems such as cough, sore throat, body aches, headaches, chills and fatigue. Some cases have also included reports of vomiting or diarrhea.
What should I do if I feel sick? People with ordinary flu symptoms do not need to seek emergency care, New York City officials said. But people with certain warning signs in addition to basic symptoms should seek urgent attention.
In children, those signs include difficulty breathing; bluish skin color; flu symptoms that begin to improve, then return with fever and worse cough; and fever with a rash.
In adults, warning signs include difficulty breathing, pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen, sudden dizziness, confusion, and severe or persistent vomiting.
[snip]
But most of the patients who contracted swine flu in the U.S. have recovered without taking the drugs. Both drugs have also been approved to reduce the risk of contracting the seasonal flu. But, unlike a vaccine, they do not provide long-lasting protection. So their preventive use is typically for short-term situations, such as for people who are at high risk of complications from the flu and who have a family member who has the flu. The drugs, which are included in the federal government’s pandemic stockpile, are only available with a doctor’s prescription.
Are there ways to reduce the spread of disease?
Cover your nose and mouth when you cough or sneeze. Wash your hands often. Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Avoid close contact with infected people.
People who have mild symptoms should stay home from school or work until 48 hours after the symptoms have passed, to avoid spreading disease, New York health officials said.
There were
excellent tips on prevention here, (apologies to the author for condensing the article without indicating where it was cut):A single sneeze propels 100,000 droplets into the air at around 90 mph, landing on door knobs, ATM keypads, elevator buttons, escalator railings, and grocery cart handles. In a subway station at rush hour, according to British researchers, as many as 10 percent of all commuters can come in contact with the spray and residue from just onesneeze (or sternutation). That means as many as 150 commuters can be sickened by one uncovered achoo.
...every sneeze should be covered -- preferably with the crook of an arm - and every hand should be washed ... and washed again.
In a subway station at rush hour, according to British researchers, as many as 10 percent of all commuters can come in contact with the spray and residue from just one sneeze (or sternutation). That means as many as 150 commuters can be sickened by one uncovered achoo.
1. Sanitize -- i.e. Wash Your Hands Frequently. It may sound obvious, but hand-washing with soap and water for around 20 seconds is the single best thing you can do (if you're going to go out into the world and interact with other human beings) [that's the amount of time it takes to sing the Happy Birthday song]. The CDC estimates that 80 percent of all infections are spread by hands. If you can't wash your hands regularly, try hand-sanitizers with 60 percent alcohol content.
2. Avoid -- i.e. Engage in "Social Distancing." That's the fancy term for reducing unnecessary social contact, staying away from crowds, and avoiding people if you're sick or if you're concerned that they may be infected. It may not be especially practical when you have to go to, say, work, but experts believe it's worth repeating: Isolation and avoidance reduce your chances of getting infected or infecting others.
If you need to go someplace crowded, the CDC says, try to spend as little time as possible and try to stay six feet away from potentially infected people. Wearing a surgical or dental facemask - cleared by the FDA as a medical device - "can help prevent some exposures," the CDC says, but they're not foolproof.
3. Be Alert -- i.e. Recognize the Symptoms and Get Help. Swine flu symptoms are similar to regular flu: Fever, body aches, sore throat, cough, runny nose, vomiting, diarrhea, and lethargy.
An Australian article compared this to some recent major flu outbreaks:
In 2003, Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread to 30 countries, killing 774 people. Growth in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation countries was reduced by about one per cent overall but Hong Kong’s output dropped by 1.8 per cent.
The outbreak of avian flu in 2004, which began in Vietnam then moved to neighbouring countries, has led to hundreds of deaths. The flu, caused by the H5N1 virus, is still considered a pandemic threat by the World Health Organisation.
Check out the
5 Deadliest Pandemics in History for history buffs, from the The Peloponnesian War Pestilence to The Antonine Plague, The Plague of Justinian, The Black Death, and The Spanish Flu of 1918.
The material on this site is for informational purposes only, and is not a substitute for medical advice, diagnosis or treatment provided by a qualified health care provider.